Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 112,442
2 South Dakota 98,385
3 Iowa 78,589
4 Wisconsin 76,945
5 Nebraska 73,778
6 Utah 68,613
7 Montana 64,994
8 Wyoming 64,750
9 Idaho 64,021
10 Minnesota 63,703
11 Illinois 63,589
12 Rhode Island 63,308
13 Kansas 61,023
14 Tennessee 59,326
15 Indiana 58,739
16 Arkansas 57,765
17 Nevada 56,506
18 Alabama 56,425
19 Mississippi 56,423
20 Missouri 56,401
21 Oklahoma 55,771
22 Louisiana 54,758
23 New Mexico 52,434
24 Arizona 52,160
25 Alaska 51,839
26 Florida 49,994
27 Texas 47,315
28 Kentucky 47,056
29 Colorado 46,951
30 Georgia 46,485
31 South Carolina 46,021
32 Michigan 44,308
33 Ohio 43,631
34 New Jersey 42,657
35 Delaware 42,581
36 Connecticut 38,778
37 North Carolina 38,569
38 Massachusetts 38,222
39 New York 37,422
40 Maryland 36,435
41 California 36,075
42 Pennsylvania 34,567
43 District of Columbia 33,424
44 West Virginia 31,838
45 Virginia 30,780
46 Puerto Rico 28,785
47 Washington 25,579
48 Oregon 20,646
49 New Hampshire 19,579
50 Hawaii 13,215
51 Maine 10,451
52 Vermont 8,301

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,551
2 North Dakota 1,390
3 Ohio 1,214
4 Connecticut 985
5 Wyoming 883
6 Indiana 874
7 Idaho 866
8 Nevada 850
9 Arizona 846
10 Alaska 838
11 Minnesota 822
12 Delaware 810
13 Tennessee 797
14 Utah 741
15 Montana 740
16 Nebraska 715
17 Colorado 709
18 Kansas 704
19 California 694
20 Pennsylvania 688
21 South Dakota 653
22 West Virginia 648
23 Illinois 640
24 Oklahoma 626
25 Missouri 625
26 Alabama 617
27 New Hampshire 609
28 Kentucky 604
29 Wisconsin 577
30 New Jersey 565
31 Michigan 558
32 Massachusetts 552
33 Arkansas 545
34 Louisiana 529
35 Mississippi 500
36 North Carolina 500
37 South Carolina 499
38 New Mexico 491
39 Iowa 482
40 Washington 468
41 New York 464
42 Virginia 451
43 Texas 438
44 Maryland 426
45 Georgia 390
46 Florida 374
47 District of Columbia 338
48 Oregon 303
49 Puerto Rico 290
50 Maine 228
51 Vermont 152
52 Hawaii 53

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,961
2 New York 1,784
3 Massachusetts 1,606
4 Connecticut 1,470
5 Louisiana 1,430
6 North Dakota 1,396
7 Rhode Island 1,387
8 Mississippi 1,349
9 South Dakota 1,255
10 Illinois 1,135
11 Michigan 1,063
12 District of Columbia 993
13 Arizona 959
14 Indiana 952
15 Arkansas 911
16 Pennsylvania 905
17 Florida 902
18 Georgia 902
19 South Carolina 890
20 Iowa 863
21 New Mexico 837
22 Delaware 824
23 Maryland 813
24 Texas 808
25 Alabama 803
26 Nevada 768
27 Missouri 748
28 Tennessee 739
29 Minnesota 724
30 Montana 713
31 Wisconsin 697
32 Nebraska 665
33 Kansas 637
34 Colorado 609
35 Ohio 607
36 Idaho 604
37 North Carolina 537
38 Kentucky 521
39 California 512
40 Virginia 499
41 Oklahoma 485
42 West Virginia 485
43 Wyoming 483
44 New Hampshire 416
45 Washington 407
46 Puerto Rico 377
47 Utah 303
48 Oregon 256
49 Alaska 190
50 Hawaii 183
51 Maine 177
52 Vermont 136

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 22
2 Rhode Island 17
3 Arkansas 14
4 Nebraska 14
5 Wyoming 13
6 Indiana 10
7 Michigan 10
8 Illinois 9
9 Missouri 9
10 Montana 9
11 Tennessee 9
12 Connecticut 8
13 Idaho 8
14 Kansas 8
15 Delaware 7
16 Louisiana 7
17 Mississippi 7
18 South Dakota 7
19 West Virginia 7
20 Kentucky 6
21 Minnesota 6
22 Nevada 6
23 Pennsylvania 6
24 Wisconsin 6
25 Colorado 5
26 Maryland 5
27 Massachusetts 5
28 Alabama 4
29 Florida 4
30 Iowa 4
31 New Jersey 4
32 New York 4
33 Ohio 4
34 Oklahoma 4
35 Oregon 4
36 South Carolina 4
37 California 3
38 North Carolina 3
39 Texas 3
40 Utah 3
41 Vermont 3
42 Arizona 2
43 District of Columbia 2
44 Georgia 2
45 Maine 2
46 New Mexico 2
47 Puerto Rico 2
48 Virginia 2
49 Alaska 1
50 New Hampshire 1
51 Washington 1
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 223,725 1 99
Norton Kansas 209,849 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 204,028 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 200,306 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 199,171 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 73,424 514 83
Richland South Carolina 52,446 1367 56
York South Carolina 39,765 2053 34
Orange California 29,225 2534 19
Pierce Washington 22,409 2771 11

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 5,952 3 99
Foster North Dakota 5,607 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 5,496 5 99
Richland South Carolina 746 1447 53
Davidson Tennessee 645 1672 46
York South Carolina 527 1926 38
Orange California 514 1956 37
Pierce Washington 380 2283 27

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons